Why Most AppSumo Lifetime Deals Fail — And How to Spot the Winners

 

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Buying a lifetime deal on AppSumo feels like a steal. Pay $49 once, get access forever. But here's the uncomfortable truth: not all lifetime deals survive.

At LTD Atlas, we've been tracking 200+ AppSumo products to answer a simple question: what's the actual success rate of lifetime deals?

The Numbers Don't Lie

After analyzing our database, here's what we found:

• About 60-65% of products remain active and honor their lifetime deals
• Around 15-20% have pivoted to subscription models
• Roughly 15-20% have shut down completely

That means if you buy 10 lifetime deals, statistically 2 of them will disappear entirely, and another 2 might force you into a subscription.

Red Flags to Watch For

Based on our data, here are warning signs that a lifetime deal might not last:

1. Solo founder with no funding — Higher risk of burnout and shutdown
2. Crowded market — Too much competition squeezes margins
3. No organic growth — If the product only gets users from AppSumo, it's fragile
4. Unrealistically low pricing — If the LTD price seems too good to be true, the economics might not work

Green Flags

On the flip side, these signals suggest a deal is worth buying:

1. Existing user base before AppSumo — Product-market fit is already proven
2. Team of 3+ — More resilient than solo founders
3. Niche market — Less competition, more sustainable
4. Clear monetization beyond LTDs — Shows long-term thinking

Use Data, Not Gut Feeling

Instead of guessing, use actual data. LTD Atlas gives you the success rate, pricing evolution, and survival status of 200+ products.

Check out our full research report on [Google Docs](填入 Google Docs 链接).

Browse our curated SaaS resource list on [Google Sheets](填入 Google Sheets 链接).

See our visual overview on [Google Slides](填入 Google Slides 链接).

Visit our [brand page](填入 Google Sites 链接) for more about LTD Atlas.

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LTD Atlas — The lifetime deal success rate database. Visit ltdatlas.com to explore the data.

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